Poker: Fate vs Luck
So the other day I was in Waterloo with Duy and we met up with Wen, and one thing lead to another and we started talking about poker, and how it's luck-ish and I brought up how it's also fate-ish, which started some weird conversation about how... stuff... stuff... anyway, some of you will probably lose your mind reading this, and I'll lose my mind writing this so we both win. So why is poker about fate?
Well... after the dealer shuffles the deck, the cards are determined. That is, they are in a certain order that won't change. If you label the cards 1, 2, 3, ... 52, and let's say there are 4 people at the table, then for sure, player 1 will get cards 1,5, p2 will get 2,6, p3 will get 3,7, p4 will get 4,8, and after the burn cards, the cards on the table will be (burn 9) - 10, 11, 12 (burn 13), 14, (burn 15), and 16.
Okay, so the cards are already in a certain order after they're shuffled, so in a way the cards are determined, as I've shown above, so that's why poker is about fate. It's like, um, "God", he can see what the cards will be. I mean, if, let's say just before the river card, the dealer shuffles the cards, then the top card is no longer determined, and in this way "God" cannot see what the last card will be.
So if you're holding and 2 and an 8, and your opponent is holding two aces, well... it was determined, after the shuffle, that you would get those cards, and if the flop happens to be three 2's, then so be it - it's like, at this moment in history, it was determined that your 2 and 8 will beat the 2 aces. It was determined - you weren't lucky, it just was determined. Maybe it was even more determined if a computer or machine shuffled the cards, instead of a person shuffling the cards? ooh, I brought up a new point... wheee...
So here comes the question - if you can choose whether the dealer would shuffle the deck just before the river card, would you have him/her do it? I think it depends on what you want. Let's say you're holding two spades, and there are 2 spades on the flop. Nothing on the turn. Now it's time for the river, and you're looking for a spade. So you want to know if it was determined that the last card would be a spade. First, now go back to "luck" and probability. What are the chances that the top card up there is a spade? Well, it's one card out of the remaining 40-45 cards. Do you feel lucky that the top single card is a spade?
Or would you rather think that there's a better chance that there or more spades below the top card, and you would feel better if the deck was shuffled so that one of those spades might make it to the top? For some reason, I think if you were in this situation, you would feel better if the dealer shuffled the deck. If they don't shuffle the deck, then it's fate that determines whether you win or not; if you do shuffle the deck, it's luck that determines whether you win or not. And since you're not in control of this fate, you would rather go on the side of luck.
Likewise, if you're holding a great hand and you don't want any surprises on the river, I think you would rather not shuffle the deck. You wouldn't want some jerk holding two spades to get lucky because they shuffle a spade to the top of the deck. I think you have a better chance that the top card of the deck is something non-threatening.
While we're on this weird subject, I think you would feel better if you lost a hand due to fate, rather than if you lost a hand due to luck. Losing a hand due to luck, that's because of bad luck, and you just feel bad. If you lose a hand due to fate, due to the top card being determined to make the other guy win, then you kinda go, "oh well, that's the way it was meant to be". It still sucks, but you feel like you understand the reason why you lost more... if you lost because you're unlucky, it's harder to justify it.
Are you confused yet? I know I am. Anyway, the actual question that I posed was, if I polled 1000 poker players, how many of them would say that they would want to keep the game the way it is, or to have the dealer shuffle the cards before the river (or the turn, or whatever)? I think I decided that most would keep it the way it is, but more interestingly, bad poker players would want to allow the shuffling, and good poker players would want to keep it the way it is. Good poker players understand the game and they usually like to be more certain of the results (and perhaps they would be winning in the hand before the river anyway), and bad poker players like to depend on luck to help them win.
What do you think? Are you super confused yet? Or did you just go "meh" at the whole topic? heehee.
Well... after the dealer shuffles the deck, the cards are determined. That is, they are in a certain order that won't change. If you label the cards 1, 2, 3, ... 52, and let's say there are 4 people at the table, then for sure, player 1 will get cards 1,5, p2 will get 2,6, p3 will get 3,7, p4 will get 4,8, and after the burn cards, the cards on the table will be (burn 9) - 10, 11, 12 (burn 13), 14, (burn 15), and 16.
Okay, so the cards are already in a certain order after they're shuffled, so in a way the cards are determined, as I've shown above, so that's why poker is about fate. It's like, um, "God", he can see what the cards will be. I mean, if, let's say just before the river card, the dealer shuffles the cards, then the top card is no longer determined, and in this way "God" cannot see what the last card will be.
So if you're holding and 2 and an 8, and your opponent is holding two aces, well... it was determined, after the shuffle, that you would get those cards, and if the flop happens to be three 2's, then so be it - it's like, at this moment in history, it was determined that your 2 and 8 will beat the 2 aces. It was determined - you weren't lucky, it just was determined. Maybe it was even more determined if a computer or machine shuffled the cards, instead of a person shuffling the cards? ooh, I brought up a new point... wheee...
So here comes the question - if you can choose whether the dealer would shuffle the deck just before the river card, would you have him/her do it? I think it depends on what you want. Let's say you're holding two spades, and there are 2 spades on the flop. Nothing on the turn. Now it's time for the river, and you're looking for a spade. So you want to know if it was determined that the last card would be a spade. First, now go back to "luck" and probability. What are the chances that the top card up there is a spade? Well, it's one card out of the remaining 40-45 cards. Do you feel lucky that the top single card is a spade?
Or would you rather think that there's a better chance that there or more spades below the top card, and you would feel better if the deck was shuffled so that one of those spades might make it to the top? For some reason, I think if you were in this situation, you would feel better if the dealer shuffled the deck. If they don't shuffle the deck, then it's fate that determines whether you win or not; if you do shuffle the deck, it's luck that determines whether you win or not. And since you're not in control of this fate, you would rather go on the side of luck.
Likewise, if you're holding a great hand and you don't want any surprises on the river, I think you would rather not shuffle the deck. You wouldn't want some jerk holding two spades to get lucky because they shuffle a spade to the top of the deck. I think you have a better chance that the top card of the deck is something non-threatening.
While we're on this weird subject, I think you would feel better if you lost a hand due to fate, rather than if you lost a hand due to luck. Losing a hand due to luck, that's because of bad luck, and you just feel bad. If you lose a hand due to fate, due to the top card being determined to make the other guy win, then you kinda go, "oh well, that's the way it was meant to be". It still sucks, but you feel like you understand the reason why you lost more... if you lost because you're unlucky, it's harder to justify it.
Are you confused yet? I know I am. Anyway, the actual question that I posed was, if I polled 1000 poker players, how many of them would say that they would want to keep the game the way it is, or to have the dealer shuffle the cards before the river (or the turn, or whatever)? I think I decided that most would keep it the way it is, but more interestingly, bad poker players would want to allow the shuffling, and good poker players would want to keep it the way it is. Good poker players understand the game and they usually like to be more certain of the results (and perhaps they would be winning in the hand before the river anyway), and bad poker players like to depend on luck to help them win.
What do you think? Are you super confused yet? Or did you just go "meh" at the whole topic? heehee.
posted by Unknown at 1:39 PM
3 Comments:
Both scenarios are the same.
The probabilities are the same.
In what you've described, fate = luck. It's a matter of interpretation.
but i think bao's point /is/ that our interpretation is significant to how we feel about our experience when playing poker. that is, if a poker player says "i'd rather the deck be shuffled" or "i'd rather the deck stay as it is", then that reveals that even though the poker player knows objectively the probabilities are the same, s/he still has a preference.
note that in poker, people -- even good poker players -- do not go by what is objectively true. poker players (i think?) routinely go against probabilities that they know to be true [say, when deciding whether to call someone's bluff or not] because of some "gut feeling".
in short, the game of poker involves human feelings that go against objectively true facts about probabilities; a player may wish the deck to be shuffled; a person may "feel lucky" during a certain round; a person might have a "gut feeling" about calling a bluff that by probabilities he shouldn't call.
I'm well aware that both scenarios are the same :P It's not like poker was invented yesterday and math the day before. But I did have fun making up this discussion :P
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